Ghulam Nabi Azad's fate in balance in Saturday's J&K Rajya Sabha polls

5 Dariya News

Jammu 06-Feb-2015

Hectic last-minute political activity was seen Friday in Jammu and Kashmir, where elections for four Rajya Sabha seats will be held Saturday.Even as the BJP and the PDP are still claiming to finetune the mechanism for a coalition government in the state, they have announced support for each other in the polls.The BJP has accordingly fielded two candidates, Shamsher Singh Manhas and Chander Mohan Sharma while the PDP has fielded Fayaz Ahmad Mir and Nazir Ahmad Laway. This has been done to ensure that the BJP and the PDP bag two seats each.In the 87-member state assembly that forms the electoral college for the polls, the PDP has 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15 and the Congress 12 members. Seven independents were also elected in the Nov-Dec 2014 polls.The Election Commission has issued three notifications for the polls - the first two for one seat each and the third for two seats. The voting, however, will be held simultaneously on SaturdayThe NC has fielded two candidates, Sajad Kichloo and Nasir Aslam Wani, both former ministers who lost the assembly elections. The party has also decided to support Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress who is seeking re-election from the state as his term in the Rajya Sabha, where he is the Leader of Opposition, ends this month.

Former chief minister Omar Abdullah has said that Azad's victory is a must for the state's secular forces.This support has come notwithstanding the fact that both Azad and Abdullah had launched scathing attacks against each other during the assembly elections.

While Azad said that to have given Abdullah a six-year term as the chief minister was his party's biggest blunder after the 2008 elections in the state, Abdullah blamed the former union health minister for factionis in the state Congress that made for a stormy six years in office of the NC-Congress ruling alliance.The victory of two PDP candidates and one BJP candidate is a foregone conclusion, given the electoral arithmetics for the polls, while Azad's fate is the main focus in the exercise.

Azad's fate entirely depends on how the seven independent candidates vote. Of them, two belonging to Sajad Lone People's Conference have announced their support to the BJP while the one from Udhampur constituency, a BJP dissident, also said he would vote for the party.The lone independent from Ladakh has announced support for the PDP.This has left three independents - Muhammad Yusuf Tarigami, Hakim Muhammad Yaseen and Engineer Rashid - who hold the key to Azad's victory or defeat.Tarigami and Yaseen have announced support to Azad. While Tarigami said he has decided to support Azad for his secular credentials, Yaseen said his vote for Azad would be because of personal relations with the Congress leader and not because the Congress and the NC had aligned to support him.Engineer Rashid has still not firmed up whether he would support Azad or abstain from voting.According to the present alliance arrangements, PDP's Fayaz Ahmad Mir would get 57 votes (28 of PDP, 25 of BJP and four from independents) thereby winning the first seat. Similarly, Shamshar Singh Manhaswould also get 57 votes to win the second seat.

For elections for the remaining two seats, the PDP's Nazir Ahmad Laway would get his party's 29 votes and that of the independent from Ladakh, thereby ensuring his victory.Chander Mohan Sharma of the BJP would get 28 votes - 25 of the BJP, two of the People's Conference and that of the independent from Udhampur.Azad, contesting for the fourth seat, would get 29 votes if both Tarigami and Yaseen vote for him.The key to Azad's victory, therefore, lies in Engineer Rashid's vote. If he votes for Azad, then the Congress leader's victory would be certain. If Engineer Rashid chooses to abstain from voting, then also Azad would get 29 votes and would be the victor.

But, if Engineer Rashid chooses to vote against Azad, the both Azad and BJP' s Sharma would get 29 votes each."In such an eventuality, the victor would be determined by a draw of lots as per the election rules", an official of the state legislature told IANS.Azad's political fate hanging in the balance proves the fact that politics is not just the art of the possible, it is also the art of the impossible. The NC supporting Azad had been a political impossibility till the other day as had been the forging of an alliance between the BJP and PDP.