West Bengal could be on the threshold of a new
chapter in its post-independence political history with the coming Lok Sabha
polls likely to throw up a new political polarisation between the opposition
BJP and the ruling Trinamool Congress, pushing the Left Front and Congress
further into the margins.The polarisation about which analysts have been
speaking about in more clear-cut terms, particularly after the collapse of the
seat-sharing talks between the Congress and the Left Front, could on a shallow
reading seem abrupt, but to the more discerning observers it is the culmination
of a process latent in the history of the state and long-term efforts to create
a narrative for the political right wing.With large streams of Hindu refugees
arriving in West Bengal from East Pakistan after partition, and their numbers
only getting bolstered during the Bangladesh War of Independence in 1971,
Bengal was always a fertile ground for the Hindu right wing forces to spread
their influence.But the emergence of the Left parties, led by the Communist
Party of India, and later the CPI-M, and their success in establishing their
sway over the refugees spoiled the chances of the Hindutva forces to take
wing.The situation remained somewhat similar during the 34-year rule of the Left
Front, but changed once the Trinamool came to power in 2011.The decision of the
Mamata Banerjee government to give monthly allowances to Imams and Muazzins
created deep resentment among the Hindu middle-class against the government's
"selective benevolence" and created fissures in the society.It was
here that the RSS and other Sangh Parivar organisations stepped in and
increased their footprint in the eastern state.In 2015, the RSS disclosed
before the media here that the number of its 'shakas' had doubled in West
Bengal over the previous three years. Last year it said the membership strength
in Bengal was one of the highest in the country.
The Banerjee government's decision to halt the
Durga Puja immersion on the day of the Muslim religious occasion of Muharram as
a precautionary measure to prevent any breach of peace was exploited by the BJP
and Parivar to raise a shrill cry against the government's "anti-Puja
stance".Soon after, the city and the districts were witness to grand Ram
Navami rallies - many of them displaying tridents, swords and spears. Then
followed the Hanuman Jayanti rallies.The high-voltage observation of religious
occasions, some of them till then not very popular in Bengal, gave a push to
religious polarisation, that got further accentuated as the state saw a series
of communal disturbances in places like Asansol, Kharagpur, Basirhat and
Dhulagarh.The BJP started making inroads, capitalising on the people's deep
disenchantment with the LF.On the other hand, the BJP's growth suited Banerjee,
as the saffron party started chipping at the LF and Congress votebank, and
drawing their leaders and supporters who wanted protection from the violence
let loose on them allegedly by goons backed by the Trinamool. In the process,
the opposition votes got divided.There was, however, a temporary stop in the
Left and Congress cadres gravitating to the BJP during the 2016 assembly polls,
when the LF and the two parties entered into a tie-up.But as the alliance came
a cropper, the BJP's pull increased and since then it has been coming up as the
main challenger to the Trinamool Congress in a series of assembly and
parliamentary by-polls and last year's Panchayat elections.A very significant
happening since the 2016 assembly polls was the BJP's success in roping in
Mamata Banerjee's close lieutenant Mukul Roy. A man highly-rated for his
organisational skills and credited with having played a stellar role in
ensuring the Trinamool's stunning electoral successes, Roy was also a champion
in causing defections from other parties.He used the same skills after joining
the BJP, where he has been made coordinator of the party's election management
committee.
Trinamool MPs Saumitra Khan and Anupam Hazra, the
party's four-time legislator Arjun Singh, Congress MLA Dulal Bar, Khagen Murmu
of CPI-M, and Bharati Ghosh - a retired IPS officer once close to Mamata
Banerjee - are among those who have crossed over to the saffron camp at Roy's
behest.Khan, Hazra, Singh, Murmu and Ghosh have been nominated by the BJP to
contest the Lok Sabha polls."Roy now is the one who is heard by our
national leadership. In candidate selection, he has offset the other frontline
state leaders. Apart from Roy's chosen candidates, the RSS has had a
considerable say in pushing the case of some of the candidates," a BJP
source said.Roy's prime backer is said to be Kailash Vijayvargiya, the party
general secretary in charge of Bengal.RSS pracharak Arvind Menon, the
co-incharge for the state, and the party's joint general secretary
(organisation) Shiv Prakash are the other key men."The key decisions are
now being mostly taken by these four leaders and then communicated to
others," the source said.Bengal, with its 42 seats, has the third largest
share in Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh (80) and Maharashtra (48).The BJP, which
had bagged 71 seats in UP in 2014, is unlikely to repeat the success following
the formation of the BSP-SP alliance.On the contrary, the party had won only
two seats in Bengal five years back.Having made considerable inroads in the
state now, and with the Congress and LF rather weak, the BJP has high hopes
from Bengal.According to political analyst Bimal Shankar Nanda, the direct
fight with the BJP in most of the constituencies, has the potential of making
the Trinamool vulnerable in upto 23-24 seats.In that way, the political battle
for Delhi can be won or lost in Bengal.